Reasons why Ukip will underperform in the upcoming election
1. Political inertia. The first past the post system makes it immensely difficult for new parties to get established as a real political force because most British constituencies have large in-built majorities for either the Labour or Conservative Parties. This is because the nature of the populations in those constituencies are such as to make a winning vote for the Conservatives or Labour candidate very likely, for example, Labour safe seats will lie at the centre of major cities and towns and old industrial centres where thy continue to capture the White working-class vote and those of ethnic/racial minorities. Safe Conservative seats will tend to be in the suburbs and countryside. In many constituencies people will think there is no point in voting for anyone but the almost certain winner and often will not bother to vote if they do not support the party of the probable winner.
In the years since the Restoration in 1660 and the formation of the Whigs and Tories only one entirely new party (Labour) has every formed a government in the UK , although the Whigs transmuted into the liberals and the Tories mutated into Conservatives during the 19th century. The fate of the Social Democratic Party formed by four dissident leading members of the Labour Party in the early 1980s is instructive. It managed to win by-elections and in alliance with the then Liberal Party managed to gain 25% of the vote at the 1983 General Election. That gained the alliance a paltry 23 seats out of 650. By the next general election the SDP was a dead duck. The problem for the alliance was that their vote was spread much more evenly across the country than the vote of Conservative and Labour parties. The same applies to Ukip.
2. The fear of being called a racist runs very deep in Britain. This is unsurprising because almost every week there are stories in the media about people, normally white Britons, being involved in a “race row”. These incidents will frequently result in the person losing their job, and increasingly people accused of racism are being sent for criminal trial. The police also have a regular practice of investigating people for “hate crimes” without any real intent to prosecute — the intention being to intimidate individuals and, by their example, the general population.
3. People are subjected to incessant politically correct propaganda on race and immigration. ...
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