In retrospect, it all looks so inevitable. Jeb Bush’s campaign failed because he was a “woeful candidate”. [Who killed Jeb Bush’s Campaign? Jeb Did, by John Cassidy, The New Yorker, February 22, 2016] His staff blundered with an “epic misread of a GOP base hostile to any establishment candidate, especially one with hisbaggage-weighted last name”. [Inside Jeb Bush’s $150 Million Failure, by Eli Stokols, Politico, February 20, 2016]And Jeb was a “fundamentally miscast” man who never really had a chance [Jeb Bush never really had a chance in the 2016 presidential race, by Chris Cillizza, Washington Post, February 21, 2016].
That’s what they say now. But the truth is that Jeb Bush was an entirely viable frontrunner. The smart-money prediction a year ago was that a center-right candidate with party backing and deep pockets could lock up the nomination. This is traditionally how it works in the Republican Party. As Politico’s Mike Allen memorably put it a year ago, “barring a major disruption in the force field” the candidate would be Jeb Bush. [Playbook, February 25, 2015] ...
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