If conventional wisdom is right, François Fillon’s thumping victory in France's centre-right presidential primaries on Sunday as good as hands him the keys to the Elysée Palace.
But conventional wisdom was turned upside down in the UK’s referendum on EU membership and the US presidential election. Mr Fillon is the favourite now, but there is nothing inevitable about his path to the presidency.
If he is to achieve his ambition, two premises must hold.
First, he and Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front party, must be the two candidates who make it through the first round of elections on April 23 to square up against each other in the May 7 run-off.
Second, there is a mass of French voters who will then rally behind Mr Fillon, many on the left and in the centre doubtless holding their noses, to keep out Ms Le Pen. This happened in 2002 when Jean-Marie Le Pen, her father, lost by an overwhelming 82-18 per cent margin to Jacques Chirac. Like Mr Fillon, Mr Chirac was the standard-bearer of the mainstream right. ...
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